THE:美联储四年多来首次加息 点阵图显示后面连着还有9次_CheersLand

在结束两天的会议后，北京时间今天凌晨，美联储宣布加息25个基点。

这是2018年以来美国首次加息。

从新闻稿看，联储认为价格压力是普遍的，不只是能源价格，还有劳动力等，目前的失业率已明显下降（2月份美国CPI通胀率为7.9%，40年来最高；失业率为3.8%，已接近疫前水平）。

联储准备从下次会议开始，减少国债和机构债MBS的持有量。

投票委员中，圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard投票加息50个基点。

据FT报道，在会后的记者会上，联储主席鲍威尔谈到加息是为了应对高通胀和紧张的劳动力市场 extremely tight labor market in high inflation.

点阵图（dot plot，投票委员对利率区间的预测）显示，联储官员比三个月前调高了利率预测，预计2022年剩下的时间还将加息6次，2023年加息至少3次。联邦基金利率届时将达到2.8%，高于影响经济增长的“中性位置”（多数官员预测的中性利率为2.4%）。

美联储宣布本次会议不加息:金色财经报道，美联储宣布本次会议不加息，维持联邦基金利率目标区间在5%至5.25%，这是美联储自去年3月以来累计加息十次后首次暂停加息。[2023/6/15 21:37:50]

美国CPI（1965-2022）

美国劳动参与率（1948-2022）

联储新闻稿如下：

March 16, 2022

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

美联储博斯蒂克：再加息一次后，美联储可以暂停加息并评估:金色财经报道，美联储博斯蒂克表示，再加息一次后，美联储可以暂停加息并评估。最近的通胀数据令人鼓舞，但物价仍上涨过快，美联储需要做得更多。美联储需要暂停加息并评估经济和通胀路径，以避免不必要的经济损害。硅谷银行的破产和银行压力促使上一次会议重新考虑政策，但情况很快平息，允许我们继续关注通胀。持续的通胀仍是疫情扭曲的产物，但可以在不发生衰退或美国失业率超过4%的情况下得到缓解。过去一年的加息现在才开始“产生影响”，全面的影响出现还需要时间。[2023/4/14 14:04:08]

Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

美联储会议纪要：几乎所有美联储官员都支持加息25个基点:金色财经报道，美联储会议纪要：几乎所有官员都看到了放缓加息步伐的好处。在上次会议上，几乎所有美联储官员都支持加息25个基点。“少数”官员支持或可能支持加息50个基点。[2023/2/23 12:23:43]

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.

美联储威廉姆斯：不担心美联储的央行数字货币会落后于潮流:美联储威廉姆斯：不担心美联储的央行数字货币会落后于潮流，了解和掌握央行数字货币比拿它作为比赛更重要。（金十）[2022/1/15 8:50:22]

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.

声音 | 美联储梅斯特：美联储没有计划推出数字货币:美联储梅斯特（Loretta Mester）表示，美联储正在研究数字货币，没有计划推出。（金十）[2019/11/19]

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

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